Week’s Top Stories: June 26 – July 2, 2021 – GC Capital Ideas

2021 Tropical Season Forecasts 

  • Active Atlantic anticipated: Across all forecast entities spanning academia, government and private sector, there is unanimous consent the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will feature average to above average named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and storm days. 
  • Factors driving active Atlantic forecast include above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and west Pacific regions, as well as a forecasted transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral conditions. 
  • Ramifications for Atlantic basin landfalls: The ratio of hurricane landfalls to basin activity varies considerably from year to year, and depends strongly on steering currents. Weather prediction for any event generally loses skill beyond a 7-10 day forecast lead. 
  • West Pacific typhoon expectations: Through the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre relationship with the City University of Hong Kong, the 2021 West Pacific forecast indicates above average activity. However, the landfalling numbers across the region vary with above average activity most likely for South Mainland China and Vietnam. 

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Chart: Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line (ROL) Index – 1990 to 2021: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe ROL index was up 4.5 percent year on year, at January 1. The index is a measure of the change in dollars paid for coverage on a consistent program basis and reflects the pricing impact of a growing (or shrinking) exposure base, evolving methods of measuring risk and changes in buying habits, as well as changes in market conditions. 

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Video; Dean Klisura, President, Guy Carpenter, On the Reinsurance Landscape: Guy Carpenter President, Dean Klisura, speaks with The Insurer on a wide-ranging set of topics that include the Changing Nature of Risk, the COVID-19 excess of loss claims arena, broker consolidation and race for talent, public-private structures for systemic cyber, future pandemic (re)insurance solutions and the insurance-linked securities renaissance.   

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Three Major Political and Credit Risks Amid Pandemic Recovery: COVID-19’s impacts are too wide-ranging for any one sector to carry the risks alone, and some sort of mechanism with government participation needs to be put in place. As governments continue to implement fiscal and monetary policies in response to COVID-19, country-level economic risks are growing across all regions, according to Marsh Specialty’s Political Risk Map 2021. 

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2021 Western North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Briefing: Guy Carpenter published the annual briefing on the 2021 Western North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone season. According to the briefing, the number of tropical cyclones forecast to form between April 1 and September 30 is above normal. 

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And, you may have missed…. 

Video; Peter Hearn – Navigating the Changing Nature of Risk – Opportunities and Reinsurance Support: Peter Hearn, CEO, Guy Carpenter, talks to Asia Insurance Review about the impact the changing risk landscape will have on the insurance industry – how the industry should respond to these changes –  and how reinsurance can support these new opportunities. Reinsurance supports insurance carriers in many dimensions – it is a flexible capital tool, it supports growth, and it manages volatility. 

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