Week’s Top Stories: June 12 – 18, 2021 – GC Capital Ideas
2021 Tropical Season Forecasts:
- Active Atlantic anticipated: Across all forecast entities spanning academia, government and private sector, there is unanimous consent the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will feature average to above average named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and storm days.
- Factors driving active Atlantic forecast include above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and west Pacific regions, as well as a forecasted transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral conditions.
- Ramifications for Atlantic basin landfalls: The ratio of hurricane landfalls to basin activity varies considerably from year to year, and depends strongly on steering currents. Weather prediction for any event generally loses skill beyond a 7-10 day forecast lead.
- West Pacific typhoon expectations: Through the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre relationship with the City University of Hong Kong, the 2021 West Pacific forecast indicates above average activity. However, the landfalling numbers across the region varies, with above average activity most likely for South Mainland China and Vietnam.
Video; UK Climate Stress Test a Sign of Increasing Scrutiny of Insurer Climate Risk: Jessica Turner, Catastrophe Advisory, EMEA, Guy Carpenter, speaks with The Insurer about the Bank of England’s climate stress test. It is a sign that central banks and international regulators are looking to “ramp up” oversight of insurer climate risk.
Video; Peter Hearn – Navigating the Changing Nature of Risk – Opportunities and Reinsurance Support: Peter Hearn, CEO, Guy Carpenter, talks to Asia Insurance Review about the impact the changing risk landscape will have on the insurance industry – how the industry should respond to these changes – and how reinsurance can support these new opportunities. Reinsurance supports insurance carriers in many dimensions – it is a flexible capital tool, it supports growth, and it manages volatility.
Can the Insurance Industry Bridge the Pandemic Insurance Protection Gap? Pandemic insurance coverage has existed for a long time, but it has always been expensive and relatively rare. According to the Geneva Association, less than 1 percent of the estimated USD 4.5 trillion global pandemic-induced gross domestic product loss for 2020 will be covered by business interruption insurance.
Narrow Artificial Intelligence Is Latest Disrupter to Insurance Industry: Society is entering the age of artificial intelligence. Significant players in every industry are implementing narrow artificial intelligence (NAI) to improve their business processes. As a consequence, no element of the global insurance business model will be untouched. Most insurance product lines will need to be reengineered to reflect the new risks arising out of the adoption and deployment of NAI.
And, you may have missed….
2021 Western North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Briefing: Guy Carpenter published the annual briefing on the 2021 Western North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone season. According to the briefing, the number of tropical cyclones forecast to form between April 1 and September 30 is above normal.
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